Rybakina Locks No. 1 as Sabalenka Chases a Three-Peat

Elena Rybakina has already locked the WTA No. 1 ranking before Saturday’s US Open women’s final. She meets Aryna Sabalenka at Arthur Ashe Stadium with the trophy still open and the ranking closed.

The computer will list Rybakina first on Monday, Sept. 14, whether she wins or loses. Sabalenka is playing for the New York title she has held since 2024, and for a third straight US Open that only Chris Evert and Serena Williams have stacked in the Open era.

Rybakina Takes No. 1 Before the Final Even Starts

The ranking fight ended on Wednesday, in a quarterfinal against Zheng Qinwen, not in the final everyone had been waiting for. Rybakina dropped the first set, then won 3-6, 6-1, 6-4, and the WTA said she would take over when the list is published after the tournament.

RYBAKINA AT NO. 1

• The club: She will be the 30th woman to reach WTA No. 1 since the rankings began in 1975.
• The country: She is the first player from Kazakhstan, man or woman, to hold the top spot.
• The handover: The new list comes out on Monday, Sept. 14.
• The reign it ends: Sabalenka has 107 weeks at No. 1, 10th most of all time, and has sat there since October 2024.

Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula were still in the No. 1 race when the fortnight began. After Wednesday in New York, only Rybakina was left. The 27-year-old called the ranking something she had dreamed about since she was a girl, then tried to put it away.

Becoming the WTA World No.1 is something I’ve dreamed about since I was a young girl, it means so much to me. I’m so proud of this moment.

Elena Rybakina, WTA ranking announcement

She also said the ranking is something you feel later, when the career is over, and that titles still come first. That is the odd shape of this final. She already has the number. She still wants the cup.

THE DAYS THAT SETTLED NO. 1

1. Sept. 9: Beats Zheng in three sets and locks the ranking, whatever happens next.
2. Sept. 10: Comes from a set down to beat Gauff and reach her first US Open final.
3. Sept. 12: Plays Sabalenka for the title in Arthur Ashe Stadium.
4. Sept. 14: The WTA publishes the list with Rybakina at No. 1.

Sabalenka already knew the ranking could go. After she reached the semifinals, she said a three-peat sounded great, and that she would be more than happy to trade the top spot for it. She also said Rybakina had taken the position, and that she might take it back.

Gauff Had the Crowd, Rybakina Took the Match

Thursday night in Ashe was two different matches. Sabalenka beat Pegula 7-5, 6-2 in 1 hour 20 minutes, pouring in 29 winners to 12 and 7 aces after a tight first set. Rybakina had to climb out of a hole against Gauff, the 22-year-old who still treats this stadium as home.

Gauff led 5-2 in the first set in front of 24,000 people and closed it 6-3. Rybakina left the court, came back more aggressive, and started coming forward. She took the second set 6-4 when Gauff’s forehand leaked at 4-5, then served her way through a third set that kept breaking and breaking back until Rybakina converted a match point for 6-4.

Once Gauff’s last ball died, the building started to thin. Home crowds leave when the local hope is gone, and a lot of Ashe did not stay to watch the quieter player finish the job. The quietest player on the court was the one who closed the night.

Elena Rybakina books her ticket into her first US Open final! pic.twitter.com/HBDTVBi16U

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 11, 2026

Rybakina said there were nerves, that she took a breath and told herself to fight. On Sabalenka, she was blunt. “She’s an unbelievable player. I definitely need to serve much better than today and stay aggressive,” she said.

The top four seeds reached the women’s semifinals here for the first time since 1975. None of the Americans survived. Gauff, the 2023 champion, and Pegula, still hunting a first major, both went out on the same night, so the last American woman to win this title remains Gauff three years ago.

Seven Days Off, Then a First US Open Final

Rybakina almost never made the draw. On Aug. 20 in Cincinnati she stopped five games into a quarterfinal against Iga Swiatek, called for the physio, played one more point, and retired at 1-4 with a left ankle injury. She said the physio told her the Achilles tendon was not torn, which was the good news, and that the pain was still there.

THE WEEK SHE ALMOST MISSED

• The rest: She hit no balls for seven days and could not do much in the gym.
• The walk: For a couple of days after Cincinnati, she said, it was painful even to walk.
• The clock: The retirement came 10 days before the US Open began, with no promise she would play.

Preparation, she said after beating Naomi Osaka, was not great. Then she won her first four matches here in straight sets, serving up to 120 m.p.h. and collecting 32 aces through her first four matches, with 54 percent of her first serves coming back unreturned. “It’s an amazing progress,” she said. “We didn’t even know if I’m going to be able to play or not.”

Zheng finally took a set off her. Gauff took another. The US Open had been her trickiest major; this was her first quarterfinal here, then her first semifinal, then her first final. Since last year’s US Open she has 62 tour-level wins, the most of any player on the WTA.

How Their 17 Meetings Break Down

They have played 17 times. Sabalenka leads 10-7, and Saturday is the 18th match, a Grand Slam rematch of the Australian Open final Rybakina won 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in January. Sabalenka answered on hard courts in March, saving a match point to win Indian Wells 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(6), then beating her again in the Miami semifinals 6-4, 6-3 on the way to the Sunshine Double.

THE LAST FOUR MEETINGS

They also split older Australian Open finals, with Sabalenka winning the 2023 title match. The serve is the shared weapon. Rybakina leads the tour with 394 aces this season, 56 more than Linda Noskova. Gauff hit the fastest ball of this fortnight at 125 m.p.h., and still could not live with that serve once Rybakina settled.

Rybakina’s other Slam is Wimbledon in 2022. A win on Saturday would be her third major. Sabalenka is going for a fifth. The head-to-head says Sabalenka. The biggest final they played this year says Rybakina.

Sabalenka’s 20-Match Hold on New York

Sabalenka, 28, is in a fourth straight US Open final. She has not lost a match here since Gauff beat her for the 2023 title, a run that now covers the 2024 and 2025 championships plus six more wins this fortnight. The Pegula match was her 20th straight at Flushing Meadows.

It did not always look like this summer would deliver that. After Indian Wells and Miami, her results slipped. She reached the Australian Open final in January and lost it to Rybakina. She went out in the French Open quarterfinals and in the fourth round at Wimbledon. Against Noskova in the quarterfinals here she had to win 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(10-7). Then she blasted Pegula off the court.

“I was so desperate for the win, I wanted it badly,” Sabalenka said. She called it a last push of the season after a poor middle stretch, and said the mentality was that she was ready for whatever it took.

STRAIGHT US OPEN TITLES, OPEN ERA

A third title in a row would put her with Evert and Williams. She has now reached eight straight hard-court major finals, from the 2023 Australian Open through this one. New York is the place she still owns. The ranking is the thing she has already agreed, in public, to give away for it.

Yes, I’ll be more than happy. A three-peat sounds great. I’m just super happy that I’ve put myself in the position where I have a chance to go for three-peat, even though I’m still far away from that.

Aryna Sabalenka, after reaching the US Open semifinals

What Saturday Still Decides

The ranking is finished. The match is not. If Rybakina wins, she leaves New York as No. 1 with a first US Open title and a third Slam, and Sabalenka’s year ends without a major for the first time since 2022. If Sabalenka wins, she keeps the only prize that still separates them in this building and makes Rybakina’s new ranking look like paperwork.

WHAT WE KNOW

• The ranking: Rybakina is guaranteed No. 1 on Monday, Sept. 14, win or lose.
• The slot: They play on Saturday, Sept. 12, at 4 p.m. in Arthur Ashe Stadium.
• The series: Sabalenka leads 10-7 heading into the 18th match.

WHAT IS UNCONFIRMED

• The title: Who lifts the cup, and whether Sabalenka joins the three-peat club.
• The ankle: How much of Rybakina’s left foot is still a problem after two three-setters.
• The serve: Whether she can serve at a higher level than she did against Gauff, which she said she must.

They play at 4 p.m. on Saturday, Sept. 12, in Arthur Ashe Stadium, with Rybakina already guaranteed No. 1 and Sabalenka still holding the only New York title that can answer it.